Kepa: a £120m mistake

Kepa Arrizabalaga is definitely the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League and is simply not good enough for Chelsea.

Some people will tell you “it’s not his fault”, you should show them this:

If Kepa lets in two goals against Wolves, he’ll have let in 83 goals in his first 2 seasons at Chelsea. To put that into context, it took Petr Čech 5 seasons and Thibaut Courtois 3 seasons to reach that same number. Charity organization player. Let’s keep going.

Want to cry about “The Defense”? You can but Kepa is worse and a bigger problem.Chelsea’s defense is actually facing less shots than typical Chelsea teams of old did. Kepa has only faced 92 shots this season, which is actually 25 less than the 117 he faced last season.

Past Chelsea teams actually faced a lot more shots. In Čech’s 11 season’s at Chelsea he only had one single season where he faced less than 100 shots, 2009/10 where he faced 93. Courtois faced around 100 per season, with his lowest being 93 as well in the 15/16 horror season.

The defense in front of Kepa isn’t historically awful. Kepa just doesn’t make any saves.

Take a look:

09/10: Čech faces 93 shots and conceded 24 goals.

15/16: Courtois faces 93 shots and concedes 29 goals.

19/20: Kepa faces 92 shots and concedes 42 goals.

If you think I’m cherry picking those stats, here’s an overall look:

Čech = 1000 saves from 1241 shots (81%)

Courtois = 281 saves from 398 shots (71%)

Kepa this season = 53 saves from 92 shots (57%)

Some might say: “not all shots are the same some are harder to save”. We can measure that using the stat called ‘post-shot xG”. This tells us once a shot has been taken what the probability is it ends up being a goal.

For example, shots from 40 yards are scored lower than tap-ins.

Using that metric we can see that Kepa has faced the 2nd most difficult shots to save this season. Kepa faces shots that shot go in 1/3 times.

But take the example of De Gea who faces shots that should go in 1/4 of the time. Easier to deal with. So Kepa faces hard shots right?

There are keepers in the league who face similarly difficult shots: Dúbravka (Newcastle), Mcarthy (Southampton), Ryan (Brighton).

Despite that, each of those keepers has saved a lot of those shots from going in;

Dúbravka = 71% save percentage

Mcarthy = 69% save percentage

Ryan = 69% save percentage

Kepa = 57% save percentage

Another complaint against Kepa is how impoverished his command of the box is.

Kepa is dead LAST in the league for punches by keepers. He’s also conceded 7 goals from corners because he doesn’t move from his line. Chelsea needs a goalkeeper that will be vocal and confident in dealing with set-pieces.

Kepa is by far the worst keeper in the league and I really mean that. He is ranked lowest by every goalkeeping metric this season and costed £71.6m with an £8m annual salary. His performance could cost Chelsea’s CL qualification, which is an additional £50-£60m of TV money.

He could end up being a £120m mistake. We could have been better off promoting from the academy.

By @AydenMalek